Aliko Dangote stood before journalists at his refinery in Lagos and did something nobody expected. He went after Farouk Ahmed, the man in charge of regulating Nigeria’s oil sector. Three days later, Ahmed was out. Africa’s richest man had accused the head of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority of sabotaging his business and pocketing millions in suspicious funds. Before we could realise, Ahmed had resigned after a meeting at the Presidential Villa.
The whole episode has left people wondering. Can a businessman, no matter how wealthy, just take down a federal regulator like that? And what does it mean for the rest of us who just want to buy fuel without breaking the bank?
Dangote is not here to make small talk. He was angry, and he made sure everyone knew it. The billionaire accused Ahmed of working against his $20 billion refinery by continuing to issue import licenses for petrol, despite the Lekki facility’s capacity to produce 650,000 barrels a day.
According to Dangote, NMDPRA issued licenses for 7.5 billion litres of petrol to be imported in just the first three months of 2026. “Why are we still importing when we can produce locally?” he asked.
But the industrialist wasn’t done. He went further to file a petition with the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission. The petition claimed Ahmed spent over $7 million sending his children to schools in Switzerland and paying for an MBA at Harvard. Dangote didn’t hold back. He pointed out that parents in places like Sokoto can’t even afford N10,000 for their children’s school fees, yet a regulator was spending millions abroad.
That same week, Ahmed and Gbenga Komolafe, who heads the upstream regulatory body, both turned in their resignation letters. President Bola Tinubu wasted no time naming their replacements. Strip away all the noise and personal attacks, and you find a serious disagreement about how Nigeria should run its oil sector.
From NMDPRA’s perspective, they had good reasons to continue issuing import licenses. Dangote’s refinery, although impressive, has not yet reached full capacity. It can’t produce enough to meet Nigerians’ daily needs. Putting all the country’s eggs in one basket could backfire if something goes wrong. Having multiple suppliers, both local and foreign, keeps prices competitive and ensures fuel doesn’t run out.
Dangote views this logic as merely a matter of Language. To him, it’s deliberate sabotage. After spending $20 billion to build the biggest refinery in Africa, why should he compete with imported fuel that keeps flooding in? His refinery announced it would sell at N699 per litre at the gantry, with pump prices around N740. That’s competitive. So why the continued imports?
It’s a legitimate policy question. Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa, but it has been importing refined fuel for as long as anyone can remember. Dangote’s refinery could change that. However, handing one man control over the entire downstream sector comes with its own set of problems. What happens if he decides to jack up prices? Who stops him?
The real problem isn’t just what happened but how it happened. Ahmed went from running NMDPRA to being out of a job in 72 hours. That’s faster than most people get loan approvals. This raises questions about whether Nigeria’s regulators can actually stand up to powerful interests. Industry watchers say this confirms what many have suspected: that corruption and weak institutions have been the norm in the oil sector for years.
If Ahmed was really corrupt, then good riddance. Nigerians are tired of officials enriching themselves while the country suffers. The ICPC should investigate and prosecute if there’s evidence.
The problem is the process. Did Ahmed get a fair hearing? Was there an investigation before he was pushed out? Or did Dangote’s influence and a media campaign force the government’s hand?
The House of Representatives said they’d look into it. But by then, the decision had already been made somewhere in Aso Rock. The message to other regulators is clear: cross the wrong person, and you’re finished, no matter what the rules say.
Most people are not concerned with regulatory philosophy or institutional independence. They want to know if this means fuel will get cheaper. Dangote says his refinery can produce what Nigeria needs at better prices than imports. If that’s true, why are we still bringing in expensive foreign petrol? The promise of his refinery was always that it would end the fuel queues, stabilise supply, and bring prices down. Nigerians are still paying through their noses at filling stations. They’re still seeing long queues during shortages.
The government built four refineries that never worked correctly. For decades, the country relied on imports that enriched a few individuals and kept the rest of the population dependent. Now Dangote has built a private refinery that actually works. That’s progress.
But the way he removed a sitting regulator should worry anyone who believes in institutions. Regulators are supposed to be independent for a reason. They’re meant to balance the different interests of consumers, producers, the government, and foreign investors. When they can be influenced by whoever has the most money or power, the entire system breaks down.
Nigeria is still waiting for the day when its oil wealth actually benefits ordinary citizens. Dangote’s refinery might be part of the solution. However, the events of December 15 to 18 revealed that the country’s real problem extends beyond refineries and regulators. It’s about whether institutions can survive when powerful interests come calling.
