BY AMAYINDI YAKUBU/iFEANYI uWAGWU/OGORAMAKA AMOS/RITA OYIBOKA
Imagine a Nigeria where over 100 million people cannot afford proper food, good healthcare, or decent homes. That is what the World Bank says might happen by 2027 if Nigeria does not fix its problems fast.
This didn’t happen overnight. Years ago, Nigeria earned a lot of money by selling crude oil. Instead of using that money to build factories, good roads, strong schools, and hospitals, we relaxed and depended too much on oil money. When the price of oil fell in 2015, it was like a roof collapsing the economy started shaking. Jobs disappeared. Many young people couldn’t find work.
Over the past decades, Nigeria’s fortunes have been bound up with the promise of its vast population and the depth of its natural resources spreading across the oil rich Niger-Delta, the industrious markets of the southeast as well as the farming communities of the northern region down to the educational hubs of western Nigeria that have produced some of the brightest minds in the world. As the flourishing nation approached 2015, many Nigerians hoped that the rising oil revenues would fund schools, hospitals and new industries if appropriately harnessed. Instead, crude prices began a sharp descent that first eroded state income and then revealed how thin the economy’s non-oil foundations were. Families who had grown accustomed to modest gains in household budgets saw the value of their earnings shrink, and the balance between revenues and spending began to wobble.
As revenues fell, policy responses too often had unintended effects. To defend the Naira, foreign exchange rules were tightened, driving activities into a parallel market where the currency traded at a significant premium. At the same time, costly subsidies on fuel and power persisted, swelling budget deficits even as public investment lagged. Then came a string of shocks that occurred when the COVID-19 pandemic closed factories and emptied markets. Global food and fertiliser prices jumped after the conflict in Ukraine and in late 2022 heavy floods washed away millions of hectares of crops and submerged whole communities resulting in hunger.
Into this gathering storm arose further strains. Early in 2023, a sudden demonetisation policy disrupted everything from small-scale trade to school fees, puncturing confidence in both banks and businesses. As the rains returned in September 2024, more floods added to the losses of farmers and traders who had already exhausted their reserves. Through each crisis, the pace of growth slowed and real income per person steadily declined, leaving millions of Nigerians unable to climb back onto firmer ground.
When we stepped into 2023, the human impact of those years was plain to all. According to the World Bank, about 38.9 per cent of Nigerians, some 87 million people lived below the national poverty line bringing the nation to be recognized as the second largest poor population of any country in the world with India taking the lead. In rural areas and the north, where insecurity has forced many from their homes, the burden of hardship weighed heaviest. Children out of school, clinics without medicines and families choosing to emigrate are everyday sights.
As President Bola Tinubu took office on May 29, 2023, his administration set about reversing the most damaging distortions. The long-standing fuel subsidy was removed and the Naira’s value was allowed to find its level. The central bank refocused on keeping inflation in check and stopped creating money to fill budget gaps. In tandem, temporary cash transfers were extended to support the poorest households confronting higher prices across the nation.
Those steps as perceived by some began to stabilise the macroeconomic picture and create modest budget room to breathe for the meantime. Yet the scars of protracted under-investment have not healed. Nigeria’s schools, roads and power networks still struggle to keep pace with a population that now tops 228 million. Each year after graduation, we see about 3.5 million young and passionate Nigerians enter a job market short on formal opportunities. Insecurity along trade routes especially in the North and in farming regions continues to disrupt livelihoods and sap confidence in survival.
Reactions
Recently, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dr Akinwumi Adesina, warned that Nigeria is facing a deeper economic regression than many realise, stating that with a current GDP per capita of just $824, Nigerians are significantly worse off than they were at independence in 1960.
The Pointer Newspaper while sampling people’s reactions to the World Bank poverty predictions, interviewed some respondents on the issue. According to Mr. Salisu Abdullah, “When you look at the World Bank and IMF reports or predictions on the Nigerian economy, they are quite alarming. Despite what one might call moderate or, rather, consistent improvement in the economy since 2023, some government policies have stabilised the economy and set it on a more normal developmental trajectory. I believe growth has risen from 3.2 per cent to 3.6 per cent, and projections for 2026–2027 suggest it could reach 3.8 per cent.
‘’However, despite this growth, there are numerous indicators showing it is not enough. The World Bank has warned that between now and 2027, the number of people living in poverty on the streets may increase. If you consider the percentage of people living below the international poverty line of US$2.15 per day, many Nigerians fall into this category.
‘’It is reported that 80 per cent of those living in Sub-Saharan Africa live in poverty, which is a significant proportion of the global poor population. Even with the ₦70,000 minimum wage, when converted to dollars at the current rate, approximately US$155, it is insufficient. Over a month, such an amount is negligible. This highlights the extent of poverty among Nigerians.
Moreover, if we juxtapose economic growth, which remains in single digits, with the rate of inflation, it becomes clear they are not proportional. Economic growth cannot keep pace with inflation, indicating the need for significant policy adjustments.”
He recommended, “The government must reassess its dependency on crude oil alone, as both the IMF and World Bank have noted that such reliance is unsustainable. Macro and microeconomic policies need to be re-strategised. Small and Medium-scale Enterprises (SMEs) should be supported, as they have the potential to employ many young people. Currently, many Nigerian youths, including young women, are unemployed. Even those who start businesses with modest capital, let’s say ₦50,000, can lose everything due to inflation. In an instant, someone with a capital of ₦150,000 can see their business fail.”
In another interview session with Mr. Bilal Ishaq, a lecturer and researcher, shared his thoughts and offered steps Nigeria can take to bridge the gap of poverty. “The predictions of the World Bank and IMF are disturbing about Nigeria. But when we look at it critically, the economy of almost all the countries in the world is going down, except Burkina Faso on the African continent and Russia, which is stylishly managing its economy. But all other economies of countries in the world, or the majority of the countries in the world, are facing hardship, but this is not to say that the case of Nigeria is not one to be concerned about.
‘’Meanwhile, I think the issue comes with the effective government implementation of policies. I want to believe that the policies that have been introduced are capable of resolving economic hardship in the country, but a lack of effective implementation has always been the problem. This is where corruption comes in, along with ethnic bigotry and all other depreciating factors.”
“Outside policy implementation, the government should also do more to improve the production capacity of the nation; turning the nation into a major exporting country rather than an importing nation would go a long way in repositioning the economy.
‘’Focus should also be given to agriculture. I always say that every local government has a specific agro-centric advantage. If the government can have a farm in each of the local governments in Nigeria, it will tackle food security first, reduce inflation, and also provide opportunities for exportation. The country has everything needed to survive and flourish, but proper planning, dedication, and commitment towards this cause are required”.
In the same vein, a youth leader who spoke with our correspondent in Asaba, Efe Eyela shared that Nigerians are already living in a state of extreme poverty. “The truth is that we are living it already. The World Bank says by 2027, Nigerians will be even poorer, but the poverty now is already killing people. People can’t eat twice a day. Parents are withdrawing their kids from school because fees have doubled.”
Speaking further, Eyela called for a radical rethink of national priorities to reverse the poverty trend in the country. “The government needs to prioritise youth employment. Bring back vocational centres. The average Nigerian graduate has no practical skills. How can that person survive, let alone thrive? Also, invest in health. A sick population is an unproductive one.”
He offers a firm charge to citizens, especially the youth: “Don’t wait for rescue. This is the time to skill up, link up, and save up. Learn a trade. Learn tech. Learn how to grow your food. Join cooperatives. And don’t ignore politics, your silence is costing you. If your local government chairman is invisible, vote him out.”
Echoing Eyela’s concerns, Policy Management and Public Sector Administration expert, Dr. Kelechi Udeogo, warns that the writing is already on the wall “The signs are there. The middle class is shrinking rapidly. Inflation is outpacing income. Unemployment is widening. No country with these indicators escapes poverty. Without something drastic, 2027 will not be a reversal, it will be a confirmation.”
Dr. Udeogo lays out a structured three-point plan to avert collapse: “One: invest in education with employability at its core, not just certificates. Two: create regional economic zones with incentives for agriculture, manufacturing, and tech, let Lagos stop being the only hope. Three: restructure governance to reduce overhead costs. The cost of running this democracy is eating into our development funds.”
In Benin, businessman Samuel Akinrinbola paints a grim picture from the marketplace: “Sales are down. The cost of running a business is up. Diesel, rent, and even internet are now cutting into profits. Staff salary increments are constant, but purchasing power is falling. What kind of business survives that? My fear is not 2027, how many of us will still be standing by 2026?”
On solutions, Akinrinbola recommended a focus on business climate reforms. “The government should drop the multiple taxation and harmonise regulatory bodies. Let’s not punish startups for trying to survive. The government also needs to put serious money into public infrastructure, roads, power, and transport. These are the hidden costs that make Nigerian businesses unprofitable. And please, stop the policy somersaults. No investor thrives in chaos.”
To fellow Nigerians, he offers candid advice: “This economy rewards problem solvers. Stop waiting to be employed, create something, even if small. Don’t despise humble beginnings. Also, learn how to collaborate. Two struggling businesses can merge resources and survive, but pride is killing too many ideas before they grow.”
According to Dr Adanna Nwachukwu, an Economist at University of Port Harcourt who spoke with The Pointer, “The World Bank’s projection is not just plausible—it’s likely an understatement if nothing changes. Nigeria’s economic policies have been reactive rather than proactive. We need structural reforms in taxation, subsidies, and diversification to avoid this crisis, the whole situation is rubbing off on everyone, the cost of living is high, people can’t even cope”
Another respondent, Mr. Emmanuel Briggs, a business owner in Port Harcourt told our correspondent that “Businesses are struggling with high operating costs, multiple taxes, and forex scarcity. If the government doesn’t improve the ease of doing business, more companies will shut down, worsening unemployment and poverty.”
Mrs. Folake Adebayo, a Microfinance Bank Director, “The informal sector, which employs over 80 per cent of Nigerians, is neglected. Access to credit remains a challenge. If small businesses can’t thrive, poverty will deepen.” Also, Prof. Chidi Nwanka, an Energy Economist said, “Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil is a curse. We must invest in renewable energy, manufacturing, and tech to create jobs; Agriculture, Blue Economy. The government should incentivize local production to reduce import dependency.”
The World Bank’s projection is a wake-up call—not just for the government but for every Nigerian. While the outlook appears bleak, history shows that nations have reversed dire economic predictions through bold reforms and collective effort.
The federal government must act swiftly to implement policies that stimulate growth, create jobs, and protect the vulnerable. Meanwhile, Nigerians must adapt, innovate, and demand accountability from their leaders.
